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Forex News Filter · 2018 1th Week


USD
  1. The dollar perhaps will rise.
  2. The possibility of a recession is only about 20%.
  3. The minutes of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates three times is expected to strengthen.
  4. Economic growth is expected in the range of 2%.
  1. The Fed will raise interest rates two times a year, maybe raise interest rates in June and December, perhaps add the interest rate two times is appropriate.
  2. Inflation is not up to 2% is the reason for slowing down raise interest rates.
  3. The next year the dollar will keep down the track.
  4. Also maybe rise in the next few months, but will be fell down in 2018.
  5. The USD index will be depreciated 5% over the next 6 to 12 months.
EUR
  1. Have begun to slow the step of asset purchases, if the eurozone economy maintained a strong momentum, The ECB may end the bond buying plan in 2018.
  2. Euro zone interest rates will rise at the end of the 2018.
  3. The ECB is more radical, the US dollar may continue to depreciate.
  4. Some of the European Central Bank officials suggested to tighten monetary policy in the euro zone.
  1. Despite the improvement of the euro area economy, the commitment and political risk of the European Central Bank's loosening of policy is not a unified economic and financial sector of the eurozone.
  2. It may once again become a troubled euro.
  3. The European Central Bank to maintain ultra expansionary monetary policy is fraught with danger.
  4. The euro / dollar in the first quarter of 2018 will fell to 1.1.
JPY
  1. Japan's progress in defeating deflation.
  1. The Bank of Japan in 2018 will maintain inflation target 2% , but not the reality.
GBP
  1. In 2018, the pound is expected to rise about 13%.
  1. More than half of the 111 economists are predicted UK's economic growth will not exceed 1.5% in 2018.
CAD
  1. Canada employment data is expected to stimulate to increase interest rates.
  1. The fund institution cut CAD long positions.
AUD
  1. Optimistic AUD.
  1. fund institution's position is neutral.
CHF
NZD
XAU
  1. The Fed expected tightening monetary policy has been to support gold pricing.
  2. Survey: 2018 gold continues to be optimistic.
  1. Gold is expected in 2018 will be a difficult year.
  2. Better global growth and higher interest rates will push down gold prices in the second quarter.
OIL
  1. Oil is still bullish in 2018 .
  2. Hedge funds bet on OPEC will be excessive tightening oil supply.
  3. Buying of crude oil when lower.
  1. High location consolidate and short positions should to be cautious.